Off the Chain – E-Bike Emission Modeling

Developed a mathematical model to quantify the environmental impact of shifting urban commutes from standard passenger vehicles to electric bicycles. The project synthesizes variables such as vehicle lifespan, occupancy rates, and annual commute mileage to project total carbon emissions saved over a multi-year period in the United States. By establishing a baseline for a standard 12-mile round-trip commute, the model demonstrates the exponential growth of carbon savings as e-bike adoption increases. The findings serve as a technical framework for policymakers to justify e-bike subsidies and urban infrastructure investments based on measurable CO2 reduction.

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Pradyota Phaneesh

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Custom Emission Formula: Synthesized a unique formula, ΔCTC, to calculate the net carbon reduction by accounting for the displacement of a 2-person car occupancy with individual e-bike units.

Longitudinal Impact Analysis: Modeled a 4-year growth trend (2019–2022) showing a leap from 1.9M tons to 4.0M tons of CO2 saved annually.

Statistical Validation: Achieved an r2 value of 0.999, indicating a near-perfect correlation between the increase in e-bike units and cumulative carbon savings.

Realistic Lifecycle Constraints: Integrated "Real-world" constraints, including a 5-year hardware lifespan and a 260-day annual work commute, to ensure the model did not over-estimate benefits.

Policy Justification: Provided a data-backed argument for government rebates by proving that e-bikes are the most efficient "semi-automatic" vehicle for short-range urban transit.

SKILLS

Mathematical Modeling

Data Science

Environmental Analysis

LaTeX

The Occupancy Variable

A critical insight of this model was the 2:1 Vehicle-to-Human ratio. By assuming that one car typically serves two people in a household (based on BTS data), the model conservatively subtracted two e-bike emission profiles for every one car removed from the road. This ensures the model accounts for the "utility" of the vehicle rather than just a 1-for-1 unit replacement.

Future Model Expansion

While the current model focuses on the usage phase of the vehicle, a planned next step is to integrate a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This would include the carbon cost of lithium-ion battery manufacturing and shipping, providing a "net-zero" threshold—the point at which an e-bike's mileage officially offsets its own production footprint (estimated at ~1,000 km in similar studies).

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